Author :
Abstract
Prebisch (1950) ve Singer (1950), dış ticaret hadlerinin az gelişmiş ülkeler aleyhine hareket ettiğini ifade etmişler ve bu görüş daha sonraları ilgili literatürde Prebisch-Singer tezi olarak adlandırılmıştır. Prebisch-Singer tezi, 1950 yılından itibaren çoğu kez test edilmiş ve elde edilen bulgular genellikle tezin geçerliliğini destekler yönde olmuştur. Ancak özellikle 1990 yılı öncesi yapılan ampirik çalışmalarda kullanılan yöntemlerin günümüz zaman serisi yöntemleriyle kıyaslanması durumunda bu yöntemlerin istatistiksel çıkarım yönünden yetersiz kaldıkları görülmektedir. Bu nedenle ulaşılan sonuçların doğruluğu sorgulanır hale gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada net değişim ticaret hadlerinin uzun dönem itibariyle mamul mallar (sanayi ürünleri) lehine ve birincil mallar (hammadde ve tarım ürünleri) aleyhine eğilim göstereceğini savunan Prebisch-Singer hipotezinin geçerliliği Türkiye özelinde araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla çalışmada öncelikli olarak literatürde Prebisch-Singer tezinin geçerliliğini tartışan ve test eden araştırmalardan bir kısmına tarihsel sıralamayla değinilmiştir. Daha sonra Prebisch-Singer hipotezinin Türkiye’de geçerliliği analiz edilmiştir. Analizde kullanılan veriler üçer aylık olup 1982-2020 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Veri seti üç ayrı alt döneme ayrılmıştır. Hipotezin geçerliliği doğrusal trend, Hodrick-Prescott filtre ve ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımlarıyla araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular söz konusu hipotezin Türkiye özelinde geçerli olmadığına işaret etmektedir
Keywords
Abstract
Prebisch (1950) and Singer (1950) independently asserted that terms of trade acted against underdeveloped countries, and their view was later called the Prebisch-Singer thesis in the relevant literature. The Prebisch-Singer thesis has been tested many times since 1950, and the obtained findings generally support the validity of the thesis. However, when the methods used in empirical studies conducted before 1990 are compared with today's time series methods, it is seen that these methods are insufficient in terms of statistical inference. For this reason, the accuracy of the results reached has become questionable. In this study, the validity of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, which argued that the net barter terms of trade tend to be in favor of manufactured goods (industrial products) in the long-run, whereas against primary goods (raw materials and agricultural products), is investigated in Turkey. To this end, firstly, some of the studies arguing and testing the validity of the Prebisch-Singer thesis in the literature are mentioned chronologically. Then, the validity of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis in Turkey is analyzed. The quarterly data obtained over the period 1982-2020 are utilized in the analysis. The dataset is compulsorily divided into three sub-periods. The validity of the hypothesis is investigated according to the linear trend, Hodrick-Prescott filter, and ARDL bounds test approaches. The obtained findings suggest that the hypothesis is not valid particularly in Turkey
Keywords
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