Author :
Abstract
Abrams eğrisi, kamu büyüklüğü ile işsizlik araındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koyan bir analizdir. Buna göre işsizlik ile kamunun ekonomik büyüklüğü arasında pozitif bir ilişki vardır. Abrams’a göre, devlet büyüdükçe gelir vergisi oranları da artırarak iş arama süresini uzatmaktadır. Ayrıca, büyük devletler daha çok sağlık sigortası ve işsizlik sigortası gibi işsizliğin maliyetini azaltan unsurları finanse etmektedir. Büyük kamu getirdiği düzenlemeler nedeniyle işgücü piyasasının işleyişini engelleyebilmektedir. Bunlara ek olarak, kamu büyüdükçe özel sektörün boyutunu azaltmaktadır. Bunun yarattığı işsizliğin özel sektörün diğer kısmı tarafından absorbe edilmesi güçleşmektedir. Bu sebeplerden, kamu büyüklüğü arttıkça işsizlik de artmaktadır. Bu çalışmada seçilmiş 15 Avrupa ülkesi için 1995-2012 yıllarını kapsayan 18 yıllık verilerle kamu harcamalarının Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH) içindeki payı ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Analiz için panel veri eş-bütünleşme analizi kullanılmıştır. Büyüme verilerinin de kontrol değişken olarak kullanıldığı çalışmada işsizlik ile kamu ekonomik büyüklüğü arasında Abrams eğrisine uygun pozitif ilişki bulunmuştur. Ayrıca literatüre uygun şekilde büyüme işsizlik ilişkisi arasında negatif ilişki çıkmıştır.
Keywords
Abstract
The Abrams curve is an analysis that reveals the relationship between unemployment and the economic size of the government. Accordingly, there is a positive relationship between unemployment and government size. Abrams says, larger government impose higher income taxes and provide public health and unemployment insurance. This situation leads to lower the cost of leisure to the individual. Also, large public sector may hinder the functioning of the labor market due to the regulations it has brought. In addition, as the government grows, it reduces the size of the private sector. The unemployment created by this is getting harder to absorb by the other part of the private sector. In this study, the relationship between the share of public expenditures in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment was tested for the 18-years period between 1995 and 2012 for 15 selected European countries. Panel data cointegration analysis was used for analysis. A positive relationship was found between unemployment and public economic size, in accordance with the Abrams curve. In addition, growth data was used as a control variable and in accordance with the literature, a negative relationship was found between growth and unemployment.
Keywords
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