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Alternative Methods Of Potential Output And Output Gap: Empirical Evidence For Turkey

Output gap is defined as the difference between the actual level of production and the potential level of production in an economy in a given period. To measure the potential output of an economy and the level of output deficit is imperative to define sustainable non-inflationary growth and evaluate macroeconomic policies. There are two basic methods for estimating potential output: Removal of the statistical trend and estimation of structural relationships. The first one is while trying to separate a time series into continuous and cyclic components; the second one is while trying to remove the effects of the structural and cyclic influences on the output by using economic theory. The aim of the study is to find an empricial support for potential output and output gap by using most widely used estimation methods in the literature. The output deficit for Turkey has been estimated by means of Linear trend, Hodrick-Prescott filtering, Single and Multivariable Beveridge-Nelson , Structural VAR (SVAR) and production function methods. Estimation results indicate that output deficit values estimated by using structural VAR model and Hodrick-Prescott filter are preferred methods due to their contribution to explain the inflationary process and producing results that are close to the economic performance. Production function method and estimated output deficit values ensured that we get results that are close to the two techniques mentioned.

: Output Gap, Potential Output, Estimation Methods, Inflation.


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